What to know
The CovidHub ensemble's one-week-ahead forecast predicts that the number of new weekly laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions will be approximately 6000 nationally, with 3000 to 8000 laboratory confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions likely reported in the week ending August 9, 2025. This is compared to the 4700 admissions reported for the week ending July 26, 2025, the most recent week of reporting from U.S. hospitals.
National and state forecasts
Forecasted weekly hospital admissions
Select a location and week ending date to see the ( prediction interval) based on forecasts submitted by .
Forecasted hospital admissions ( per 100,000 people)
prediction interval: – hospital admissions (– per 100,000 people)
Select location and models below. Modeling based on forecasts submitted by . Click and drag to change the forecast date to see how previous forecasts performed against reported data.
hospital admissions
Forecasted hospital admissions
(% prediction interval: - hospital admissions)
Hospital Admissions
| Median | Prediction Interval | Model | |
|---|---|---|---|
Historical data
| Forecast median | prediction interval | Name |
|---|
Select Models
Click on models to see and compare forecasts
Interpretation of forecasts
- Reported and forecasted new COVID-19 hospital admissions as of July 30, 2025. This week, 6 modeling groups contributed 7 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
- Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from all submitted models into one forecast. These forecasts have been among the most accurate for previous COVID-19 forecasting efforts but may not reliably predict rapid changes in disease trends.
- The figure shows the number of new laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from August 8, 2020 through July 26, 2025 and forecasted new COVID-19 hospital admissions per week for this week and the next 2 weeks through August 16, 2025. The colored areas on the graph show prediction intervals, which indicate the bounds of uncertainty around the forecast estimates.
- The forecasted hospital admission rates (for both median and prediction intervals) use population estimates as a population denominator for the state. We note that the denominator for rates may not capture the exact catchment populations of the hospitals in each state, but rates provide a rough adjustment for population size, allowing comparison across states with different population sizes.
- Hospitals are required to report daily laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations to the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). Review Hospital Respiratory Data for additional details on this guidance. Historical data from NHSN are not shown from April 27-October 31, 2024, due to the pause in mandatory reporting.
- The following jurisdictions had <80% of hospitals reporting for the most recent week: Alaska, Arkansas, California, District of Columbia, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, Texas, United States, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming. Lower reporting rates could impact forecast validity. Percent of hospitals reporting is calculated based on the number of active hospitals reporting complete data to NHSN for a given reporting week.
- Forecast submissions are collected and stored in the GitHub repository, which also contains more detailed information about the forecast data and submission process.
Content Source:
Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics